Despite rising costs, many homeowners are still choosing gas heating systems, with more than 1.2 million new systems installed in the past two years alone. But the conditions are deteriorating rapidly. A recent cost forecast by the non-profit consultancy co2online shows that the rising CO2 price, increasing network charges and statutory restrictions will make heating with gas significantly more expensive in the years ahead.
Rising costs and statutory requirements for fossil-fuel heating systems
The CO2 price for natural gas introduced in 2021 will continue to rise year after year, increasing the price of gas. Over 20 years, the costs add up to 15,000 euros. In addition, from 2029 new gas heating systems will have to use a proportion of expensive biogas, which will also increase running costs.
Network charges, meaning the costs of the gas network, will rise as well: the fewer households connected to it, the more expensive it becomes for those who remain. Some local authorities have also already announced that they will shut down their gas networks, which could lead to high conversion costs for the households affected. The use of natural gas in the building sector will be completely prohibited by 2045 at the latest.
Gas heating twice as expensive in the long term
A recent cost forecast by co2online shows that the energy and investment costs for a new gas heating system add up to around 78,800 euros over 20 years. By comparison, a modern air-source heat pump costs about 37,550 euros, less than half as much. Energy costs, rather than investment costs, are the principal factor determining whether a new heating system is cost-effective.
Planning pays off
Many homeowners are postponing the switch to renewable heating systems and underestimating the future financial burden. Those who obtain information at an early stage can save considerable sums through careful planning and government funding programmes. co2online’s free and independent ModernisierungsCheck offers initial guidance, helping homeowners to assess the energy performance of their home and identify measures that make economic sense.
There is at least some good news: heat pumps are being used to heat an increasing number of new residential buildings in Germany. Almost two thirds (64.6 per cent) of the nearly 96,800 residential buildings completed in 2023 used heat pumps as their primary energy source, meaning predominantly for heating. Compared with the previous year alone, this proportion rose by 8 percentage points; compared with 2014 (31.8 per cent), it has more than doubled, according to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).