Heating transition in existing buildings: owners call for planning certainty instead of fossil-fuel compromises
More than 80 per cent of homeowners interested in renovating intend to replace their fossil-fuel heating systems with sustainable alternatives. A clear majority of three quarters support retaining the 65 per cent renewable-energy rule, while the planned “bio escalator” for gas and oil heating systems meets with strong opposition.
Survey shows demand for climate-friendly systems
A large majority of homeowners interested in renovating clearly favour replacing old oil and gas heating systems with climate-friendly alternatives. This is shown by a recent survey of newsletter subscribers conducted by the non-profit consultancy co2online. At the same time, the proposal in the current key-points paper for the new Building Modernisation Act to abolish the existing 65 per cent renewable-energy rule is widely opposed; the planned “bio escalator” also attracts little support among the target group.
After the key points of the new Building Modernisation Act were published, co2online asked its newsletter subscribers about the most important proposed changes. More than 4,800 consumers took part.
One in three supports statutory requirements when replacing a heating system
The results present a clear picture: a large majority of respondents want to move away from fossil-fuel heating. More than 80 per cent believe that outdated gas and oil heating systems in residential buildings should be replaced with more climate-friendly systems. Almost one in three supports making this change a statutory requirement as well.
Homeowners warn that gas heating will become a cost trap
Many respondents take a critical view of the proposed abolition of the existing 65 per cent renewable-energy rule in the German Building Energy Act. Fifty-six per cent assess this step negatively. The open responses repeatedly express concern that necessary decisions will continue to be postponed. “The problem is being put off until the day after tomorrow instead of being solved,” one participant writes. Another warns: “Oil and gas heating systems will become a cost trap in the medium term.”
Strong opposition to the planned “bio escalator”
The so-called bio escalator, under which newly installed gas and oil heating systems must use a growing proportion of climate-friendly fuels from 2029, is also opposed by almost half of respondents. One in five additionally believes that no new gas or oil heating systems should be installed at all. One frequently cited reason for the opposition is the limited availability of the relevant fuels. “Biofuels are not available in sufficient quantities, are expensive and are needed more urgently in other areas,” one response states.
Clear differences by political preference
The analysis reveals clear differences depending on respondents’ political preferences. Voters for the Greens (99 per cent), SPD (96 per cent) and CDU (82 per cent) broadly agree on the fundamental aim of replacing outdated fossil-fuel heating with climate-friendly systems. Among AfD voters, by contrast, around one in two opposes replacement.
Differences also emerge on the specific rules. Green and SPD voters are particularly strongly opposed to abolishing the 65 per cent rule (Greens: 95 per cent; SPD: 78 per cent), whereas support for abolition prevails among CDU and AfD voters (CDU: 58 per cent; AfD: 71 per cent).
There is cross-party scepticism about the so-called bio escalator, however. A large majority of Green, SPD and AfD voters oppose the rule, while a narrow majority of CDU voters support it.
Owners demand planning certainty for investments
“Our survey sends a clear signal: many committed owners want to move away from oil and gas and expect reliable rules above all from policymakers,” says Nadine Walikewitz, Head of Research at co2online. “Anyone installing a new heating system today is making a decision for decades. Without clear guidelines, many necessary investments will continue to be postponed.”
“Overall, Germany is making too little progress on climate action in the building sector,” says co2online Managing Director Tanja Loitz. “That is precisely why effective policy instruments are needed now. If regulatory requirements are weakened, other mechanisms must have an even stronger effect, such as a reliable CO2 price, attractive funding programmes and independent advice for owners. This is the only way to genuinely accelerate the heating transition in the existing building stock.”
About the survey
More than 4,800 subscribers to the co2online newsletter took part in the survey. The results are not representative of the population as a whole, but specifically reflect the views of homeowners interested in renovation, a group that makes concrete investment decisions. The results were weighted by current voting intention to avoid political distortions.