A recent representative survey commissioned by the non-profit consultancy co2online shows that one in three people in Germany would choose a heat pump today. This puts it clearly ahead of every other heating technology. Overall, renewable-energy heating systems achieve an approval rating of 58 per cent.
Support for heat pumps has risen by 14 percentage points since 2023. Across party lines, many people now regard heat pumps as a low-cost option. This shows that cost-effectiveness, rather than political positions, is ultimately the deciding factor.
Heating with oil and gas is becoming a cost trap
Homeowners are increasingly choosing heat pumps because they work efficiently, reduce heating costs and actively contribute to climate action at the same time. They also recognise the risks of fossil-fuel heating. Two thirds of respondents agree that, in the long term, heating with natural gas or oil will become a cost trap.
The facts are clear: high fuel prices, a rising CO2 price and growing network charges are driving up heating costs. In 20 years, costs could be twice as high as they are today. There is also a risk that gas networks will be dismantled in the coming years and that local authorities could discontinue their gas supply entirely at an early stage.
Clear conditions are lacking
“The demand is there, but many people are hesitating because they do not know what they can rely on,” says Tanja Loitz, Managing Director of the non-profit consultancy co2online. “For months, consumers and the entire industry have been waiting for clear conditions, and today they have essentially been presented with nothing more than a new name. To put it plainly, we still do not know what will happen to the 65 per cent rule or what funding will look like. No one can plan reliably in these circumstances. This is a disappointing signal for owners and tradespeople alike.”
BDH calls for planning certainty
The latest sales statistics from the Federation of German Heating Industry (BDH) also show that heat pumps are advancing. Up to and including October 2025, around 255,000 units were sold across all heat-pump technologies, an increase of 57 per cent compared with the same period of the previous year. For the full year, the BDH forecasts sales of around 284,000 heat pumps and thus growth of 47 per cent compared with 2024.
According to the BDH, the momentum in the heat-pump market is encouraging, but is nowhere near sufficient to achieve the previous federal government’s targets. The former coalition had set a target of 500,000 heat pumps installed each year from 2024. In the first two years alone, the target was missed by more than 50 per cent. Against the backdrop of current market trends, the BDH is renewing its appeal to the federal government to quickly provide planning certainty and clarity about regulatory requirements.
How much will replacing a heating system cost?
Irrespective of political developments, homeowners can use co2online’s free “Modernisation Check” to find out how much replacing their heating system will cost, what funding may be available and whether the investment is worthwhile. The interactive online tool takes account of current prices and future cost trends, providing a transparent basis for decisions.