Current analysis: the heating transition is an economic reality – the market is driving heating system replacement
Despite the heated political debate surrounding heating systems, Germany’s transition to climate-friendly heating continues to move forward. This is the conclusion of a recent review by the non-profit consultancy co2online. According to the analysis, the transition is increasingly being driven by market decisions, investment and everyday business practice. It is therefore less dependent on political sentiment than is often assumed.
Heat pumps outsell gas heating systems for the first time
Sales figures provide a clear signal: around 284,000 heat pumps are expected to have been sold in 2025, compared with approximately 230,000 new gas heating systems. For the first time, heat pumps have overtaken gas systems in the German heating market. Tradespeople are also supporting the transition: installation companies rate heat pumps positively three times as often as gas heating systems, training courses are in high demand and installation capacity has been expanded.
At the same time, the cost argument is becoming less significant. Heat pumps are now the least expensive heating technology to operate. Compared with a gas heating system, an average household saves several hundred euros per year, partly because of rising carbon costs for fossil fuels. Following the price peak between 2022 and 2024, purchase costs are also falling. Manufacturers expect savings of up to 40 percent in the medium term.
The market has made its decision
The technology is also proving more suitable for existing buildings than its reputation suggests: one in two apartment buildings is already suitable for heat pumps without major conversion work. This development is supported by municipal heat planning, which is already under way or complete for more than two thirds of the population, as well as by binding EU requirements to phase out fossil-fuel heating by 2040.
“The heating transition is no longer a fragile declaration of political intent, but an economic reality,” explains Julia Hellmer, project manager at co2online. “The market made its decision long ago.”
Public attitudes are changing
According to co2online’s review, the heating transition is becoming less polarising. Between 2023 and 2024, the proportion of people who perceived climate and heating issues as divisive fell from 43 to 27 percent. The debate is calming and acceptance is growing. Increasingly, people no longer view the heating transition as an ideological project, but as a practical investment decision. Notably, acceptance is following the market rather than preceding it: trust is growing because the technology works, is available and pays off.
A recent Pollytix survey commissioned by co2online confirms this change in public opinion. The discussion is increasingly moving beyond simple acceptance towards active preference. By December 2025, the heat pump had become the preferred heating system, and one in three people in Germany would already choose one, compared with 19 percent in July 2023.