Despite falling energy prices, consumers should prepare for higher costs in their 2025 heating bills. The reason is the colder outdoor temperatures during the heating season: on average, 2025 was colder than 2024, leading to an increase in heating-energy consumption. According to a recent forecast by the energy services provider Techem, average total heating costs will therefore rise by 8.6 per cent. Households using district heating (+13.2%) and gas (+9.7%) are particularly affected.
Colder heating season increases consumption
The 2025 heating season was noticeably colder than in 2024. Assuming a linear relationship between temperature and heating-energy consumption, this produces an increase in consumption of around 11.6 per cent. Although average prices for gas (-1.6%), electricity (-2.1%) and heating oil (-8.2%) actually fell, the greater consumption caused by the lower temperatures more than offsets this effect. Only district heating recorded a slight price increase of 1.5 per cent. District heating therefore accounts for the largest rise in costs (+13.2%), followed by gas (+9.7%) and electricity (+9.2%). Heating oil rises by only a moderate 2.4 per cent.
People in Baden-Württemberg face the largest cost increase
The forecast reveals clear regional differences caused by varying weather conditions:
Federal states: while consumers in Baden-Württemberg must expect costs to rise by 14.2 per cent, those in Saxony by 13.3 per cent and those in Saxony-Anhalt by 12.2 per cent, Schleswig-Holstein has the smallest increase at 2.8 per cent. Comparatively smaller cost increases are also expected in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (+5.8%) and Lower Saxony (+5.9%).
Cities: Kiel (+0.7%), Solingen (+2.7%) and Oberhausen (+2.9%) are among the winners, with comparatively small increases. Karlsruhe (+21%), Halle (Saale) (+14.8%) and Dresden (+14.6%), by contrast, face substantial increases in heating costs.
Digital solutions help people save
“Once again this year, our heating cost forecast shows how crucial it is to have a transparent overview of your own consumption, because measurement creates awareness,” stresses Matthias Hartmann, CEO of Techem. “To reduce costs and consumption sustainably, we are relying on technological innovations […].” A Techem survey of 2,000 tenants at the beginning of the year shows that saving energy is an important issue for people in Germany: 65 per cent of respondents resolved to reduce their energy consumption this year. Digital solutions that provide greater transparency about energy use are particularly sought after. Sixty-eight per cent said they would use an app to save on heating costs. Reducing costs remains the most important driver: 91 per cent of respondents want to save energy to lower their heating and electricity bills. Sustainability also plays a part, however, with 58 per cent citing environmental protection as a motivation. This is somewhat more pronounced in western Germany (60%) than in the east (47%).
Lack of information about energy consumption
The survey also shows that many tenants do not have a clear overview of their heating costs and consumption. Thirty-two per cent do not know how high their heating costs are, and only 15 per cent can track their heating-energy consumption very well. Forty-one per cent have only a rough overview. “The survey results show that transparency and digital support are crucial to helping consumers save energy. Those who know their consumption can take targeted action, which is good for their finances and the climate,” says Matthias Hartmann, CEO of Techem.